Latest Thinking on Tanzania’s Trade Landscape (2025)
1. Shift Toward Trade Resilience and Food Sovereignty
What’s new:
- The government is increasingly prioritizing food system resilience amid global supply chain shocks, climate events, and geopolitical tensions.
- There is a push to reduce reliance on imports of staples like wheat, rice, and edible oils through:
- Expansion of irrigation schemes (e.g., Lower Ruvu, Mbarali)
- Promotion of local oilseed production (sunflower, sesame, soybean)
- Investment in agro-processing zones
Implication:
- Potential decline in some food imports over time
- Opportunity for agribusiness and input suppliers to invest in domestic production ecosystems
2. Acceleration of Agro-Industrialization
Driven by:
- Tanzania’s FYDP III and ASDP-II emphasize agro-processing, export diversification, and value addition
- New investment in Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zones (SAPZs) in regions like Dodoma, Morogoro, and Mbeya
- Strategic partnerships (e.g., South-South cooperation with countries like India, Brazil, China)
Notable trends:
- Rise in exports of semi-processed cashews, coffee, and spices (especially to China, UAE, and EU)
- Investment in packaging, branding, and certification for international markets
Implication:
- Investors in food processing, logistics, and packaging stand to benefit
- Greater participation of smallholder cooperatives in value chains
3. Regional Trade Taking Center Stage (EAC, AfCFTA)
Key developments:
- EAC: Greater harmonization of customs and quality standards; Tanzania is benefiting from higher regional demand for maize, rice, cement, and processed foods
- AfCFTA: Tanzania has begun pilot shipments to West African countries (e.g., Ghana, Nigeria), especially in coffee, spices, and light manufacturing
What’s working:
- Improved port efficiency (e.g., Dar es Salaam and Tanga)
- New cross-border infrastructure (e.g., road & rail to DRC, Burundi)
Challenges:
- Non-tariff barriers (NTBs) persist in the region (e.g., border delays, standards enforcement)
- Tanzania still lags in leveraging AfCFTA fully due to policy alignment and logistics constraints
4. Export Markets Are Shifting – Greater Focus on Asia and Middle East
China, UAE, India, and Indonesia are overtaking some Western markets in:
- Importing Tanzanian cashews, pulses, sesame, and horticulture
- Investing in agribusiness, ports, and logistics
- Demand is growing for Halal-certified and organic products, especially in the Gulf
Opportunities:
- Targeting Halal and health-conscious segments
- Leveraging Dubai and Abu Dhabi as re-export hubs to Asia and Europe
5. Digital Trade and E-Commerce Are Emerging Frontiers
New initiatives:
- Government and private sector support for digital agriculture platforms (e.g., farm-to-market traceability)
- Exporters using e-commerce to reach diaspora markets, especially in Europe, UAE, and the U.S.
Potential:
- Tech-enabled traceability and compliance can unlock higher-value exports (e.g., organic spices, specialty coffee)
6. Climate and Sustainability are Key Export Requirements
Global buyers, particularly in the EU and UK, are demanding:
- Sustainably sourced products
- Climate-smart certifications
- Supply chain transparency
Tanzania’s response:
- Efforts to improve Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) infrastructure
- Training smallholders on climate-smart farming and export compliance
7. AGOA Uncertainty and Diversification Beyond the U.S.
AGOA’s potential expiry in 2025 is creating:
- Uncertainty for apparel and textiles exporters
- A pivot toward UK, EU, and Asian buyers by Tanzanian producers
Outlook:
- Even if AGOA is renewed, Tanzania is expected to reduce dependence on U.S. trade preference programs and diversify partners
Strategic Takeaways (2025)
| Area | Trend | Opportunity |
|---|---|---|
| Imports | Shifting from dependency to substitution | Local investment in edible oils, grain milling, cold chains |
| Exports | Moving up the value chain | Agro-processing, branding, certifications |
| Regional Trade | Strengthening EAC, unlocking AfCFTA | Logistics, compliance support, NTB reforms |
| Market Focus | Increasing Asia & Middle East trade | Halal, organic, health-conscious products |
| Sustainability | Key to global market access | Climate-smart farming, traceability tech |
| Digital | Rising e-commerce, agri-tech | Export platforms, mobile traceability apps |
Model Structure
We’ll forecast two main aggregates:
- Agricultural & Food Imports (value, USD)
- Agro‑Processed & Agricultural Exports (value, USD)
We project forward from a base year (say 2025) to 2035.
We’ll use scenarios: Baseline, Optimistic, Pessimistic.
Key drivers / variables:
- GDP growth
- Income per capita growth / urbanization
- Domestic production growth (especially agriculture, agro‑processing)
- Investment in infrastructure, logistics, SPS compliance
- Trade policy effectiveness (tariffs, non‑tariff barriers, AfCFTA, EPAs)
- External demand (global commodity prices, demand from Asia/Middle East/EU)
- Inflation and exchange rates
Data Inputs / Assumptions (2025 base + forecast drivers)
From recent sources:
- Tanzania GDP growth ~ 5.4‑6.0 % in 2024/2025. TanzaniaInvest+2TanzaniaInvest+2
- Horticultural exports in 2024 ~ USD 418 million, with a target of USD 2 billion by 2030 for horticulture sector under Agenda 10/30. FreshPlaza
- Grain & feed: wheat imports projected to rise ~15.4 % in 2025/26 due to low corn supply and rising incomes. FAS
We will assume the base (2025) values:
- Agricultural & food imports = USD X_imp_2025 (let’s assume USD 2 billion for baseline for those goods),
- Agro‑processed & agricultural exports = USD X_exp_2025 (assume USD 2.5 billion in 2025),
These are placeholders; we’ll scale relative growth, not absolute.
Other assumptions:
- Inflation averaged ~3‑5 % per year; we’ll operate in real USD terms (i.e. remove inflation effect).
- Population growth & urbanization continuous; real income per capita growth ~3‑4 % per year.
- Domestic agricultural productivity growth ~2‑4 % per year, depending on investment.
- Trade policy & infrastructure improvements (cold chain, SPS etc) will reduce non‑tariff barriers, improving export growth.
Scenarios & Growth Rates
| Scenario | Import Growth Rate (Annual CAGR) | Export Growth Rate (Annual CAGR) |
|---|---|---|
| Pessimistic | 3 % | 5 % |
| Baseline | 5 % | 8 % |
| Optimistic | 7 % | 12 % |
- Import growth depends largely on income, consumption changes, and filling gaps not met by local production.
- Export growth higher in optimistic scenario if agro‑processing, market access, certifications, and external demand improve strongly.
Projection Tables: 2025 → 2035
Assuming:
- Import base (2025): USD 2.0 billion
- Export base (2025): USD 2.5 billion
Then project forward.
| Year | Imports (Pessimistic) | Exports (Pessimistic) | Imports (Baseline) | Exports (Baseline) | Imports (Optimistic) | Exports (Optimistic) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.00 B | 2.50 B | 2.00 B | 2.50 B | 2.00 B | 2.50 B |
| 2026 | 2.06 | 2.63 | 2.10 | 2.70 | 2.14 | 2.80 |
| 2027 | 2.12 | 2.76 | 2.21 | 2.92 | 2.29 | 3.13 |
| 2028 | 2.18 | 2.90 | 2.32 | 3.15 | 2.45 | 3.51 |
| 2029 | 2.25 | 3.04 | 2.44 | 3.40 | 2.63 | 3.94 |
| 2030 | 2.32 | 3.19 | 2.56 | 3.67 | 2.81 | 4.41 |
| 2031 | 2.39 | 3.34 | 2.69 | 3.95 | 3.01 | 4.95 |
| 2032 | 2.47 | 3.51 | 2.83 | 4.26 | 3.22 | 5.56 |
| 2033 | 2.55 | 3.68 | 2.97 | 4.59 | 3.45 | 6.25 |
| 2034 | 2.63 | 3.86 | 3.12 | 4.95 | 3.70 | 7.03 |
| 2035 | 2.71 | 4.05 | 3.27 | 5.35 | 3.96 | 7.89 |
(All in USD billions, real terms; numbers rounded.)
Interpretation
- Under the Baseline scenario, by 2035 imports of agricultural & food goods grow from USD 2.0B → ~USD 3.27B; exports from USD 2.5B → ~USD 5.35B. Export growth outpaces import growth, narrowing the import/export gap.
- Under the Optimistic scenario, big gains: exports ~USD 7.9B by 2035; imports ~USD 3.96B. Exports are more than double imports in value.
- Under Pessimistic, slow progress: exports (~USD 4.05B) only modestly above imports (~USD 2.71B).
Sensitivity & Key Variables
A few “what ifs”:
- If global commodity prices rise sharply, exports could overshoot forecasts.
- If climate shocks (droughts, pests) reduce agricultural output, both domestic supply and export growth suffer.
- If non‑tariff barriers (NTBs), SPS compliance, logistics costs remain poor, export growth slows.
- If infrastructure investments (cold chain, storage, ports, rail) accelerate, export growth shifts toward optimistic.
Example: Horticulture Sub‑sector
Given the horticulture export target: USD 2 billion by 2030 from ~USD 418 million in 2024. That is a CAGR of: CAGR=(2.00.418)1/6−1≈(4.7856)0.1667−1≈28.8%/year\text{CAGR} = \left(\frac{2.0}{0.418}\right)^{1/6} – 1 ≈ (4.7856)^{0.1667} -1 ≈ 28.8\%/yearCAGR=(0.4182.0)1/6−1≈(4.7856)0.1667−1≈28.8%/year
So horticulture is expected to grow ~25‑30 % per annum under Government target up to 2030.
If that kind of growth rate is partly replicable in other high‑potential sub‑sectors (nuts, spices, value‑added products), then the “baseline” 8‑12 % export aggregate CAGR might actually be conservative for certain categories.
Suggested Forecast Graph / Visualization
- Line graphs showing imports vs exports under different scenarios
- Export:Import ratio over time
- Sub‑sector breakout (horticulture, value‑added, raw)
Final Thoughts
Tanzania stands at a strategic inflection point in its trade journey. The shift from being primarily an exporter of raw commodities to a hub for value-added, sustainable agri-food exports is underway—but it requires sustained investment in infrastructure, standards, and market intelligence.
If you’re exploring business, investment, or development opportunities, focus areas include:
- Agro-processing (especially edible oils, cashews, fruits)
- Cold chain logistics and food storage
- Export compliance and certification services
- Digital traceability and e-commerce platforms
- Green and climate-smart farming value chains