What Tanzania is doing key emerging priorities (2025)
Based on recent sources, the government and stakeholders are pushing several new initiatives and policies. Major themes:
- Strategic importance of agriculture
Agriculture is being framed ever more centrally in national development policy. In Vision 2050 (draft), agriculture is defined as a foundational pillar for socio‑economic transformation (food security, poverty reduction, export earnings). sagcot.co.tz+2Kilimokwanza+2 - Scaling up geographically: Growth Corridors (AGCOT)
The government has expanded the idea of agricultural growth corridors. Previously, SAGCOT (Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor) was the big model; now a new nationwide version — AGCOT (Agricultural Growth Corridors of Tanzania) — has been launched. It extends the corridor model to other zones (Central, Northern, Mtwara etc.), aiming for higher productivity, agro‑processing, and global competitiveness. Kilimokwanza+2Kilimokwanza+2 - Modernisation / technology adoption
- Digital extension: Launch of the “e‑Kilimo (Digital Extension)” system to improve agricultural extension services, making them more transparent, accountable, accessible. allAfrica.com
- Irrigation technology: Strong push toward modern irrigation systems (drip, centre pivot, etc.), water reservoirs, better water resource management. The goal is to massively increase irrigated land: from under 1 million hectares (983,466.6 ha in 2025) toward 5 million ha by 2030. allAfrica.com
- Improved seed / crop‑variety / input support
- New high‑yielding, disease/drought‑tolerant seed varieties being distributed (e.g. sugarcane: Tarica 1, Tarica 2, R 570). Food Business MEA
- Fertiliser credit / partial credit guarantee schemes to improve access to fertiliser for smallholder farmers, especially in remote areas. allAfrica.com
- Food security & strategic crops
- Sugar has been declared a strategic crop. The government is investing heavily in sugar processing plants, supporting acreage expansion and improved seed varieties. Targeting much higher domestic sugar production. Food Business MEA
- Self‑sufficiency targets: increased food production, more local production, reducing dependency on imports. TanzaniaInvest+2Food Business MEA+2
- Export expansion / value chain / horticulture
- Strong targets for horticultural exports: e.g. fruit & vegetables exports aimed at US$2 billion by 2030. IPP Media
- Crops like avocado, sesame, cocoa, chickpeas are getting strategic attention. For example: under Agenda 10/30, increasing production of high‑value crops like sesame, cocoa, avocado; registration of farmers (for standards) to improve export quality. The Citizen+1
- Climate resilience, sustainability, post‑harvest losses, data & health systems
- Emphasis on climate‑smart agriculture, better water management, protecting soil, drought/disease resilience. it.sagcot.co.tz+1
- Strengthening animal & plant health systems, monitoring, SPS (sanitary and phytosanitary) frameworks, early warning systems. IPP Media
- Better data to improve decision making: platforms, early warning, information management systems. IPP Media+2allAfrica.com+2
- Financing, policy & implementation challenges
- Big increases in budget allocations: agriculture budget rising from TZS 294 billion in 2021/22 to TZS 1.24 trillion in 2025. TanzaniaInvest+1
- But concerns over under‑disbursement / delays: some approved funds are not released in time. The Citizen
- Need to ensure implementation capacity (extension officers, infrastructure, regulatory enforcement, etc.).
- Trade/regional context
- Use of trade policy to protect domestic producers: e.g. import bans or restrictions when needed for reciprocal trade or to protect against unfair treatment. Selina Wamucii
- Strengthening export standards and trade frameworks to tap into global markets. Horticulture export is a key target. IPP Media+1
Key challenges / risks being acknowledged
These are things that the “latest thinking” is also attentive to as constraints or possible derailers:
- Infrastructure gaps: roads, storage, cold chains, irrigation infrastructure, market access remain a problem in many rural/remote areas.
- Climate variability: droughts, floods, irregular rainfall; need for resilience via irrigation, crop varieties, etc.
- Post‑harvest losses: perishable crops (fruit/vegetables/horticulture especially) lose value due to lack of cold storage, poor handling.
- Input cost & supply chain issues: even when seeds/fertiliser are available, cost, logistics, credit can be a bottleneck.
- Regulatory / policy execution: delays in budget disbursement, implementation of extension services, farmer registration, compliance with export standards (traceability, SPS) etc.
- Market volatility / price risk: for cash crops, export crops, fluctuations in global commodity prices.
- Inclusion issues: smallholder farmers (especially women, youth) may be left out; need for inclusive programs (credit, market access).
Implications / how this thinking could change how things are done
From what I see, the “latest thinking” implies these shifts / emphasis in practice:
- More integrated, corridor‑based development rather than isolated projects: leveraging corridor infrastructure, clustering, linking production with processing, logistics.
- Stronger focus on high‑value crops & exports, not only staple food crops. Horticulture, avocado, cocoa, sesame etc.
- Use of digital tools for extension, monitoring, transparency.
- Rapid and large‑scale expansion of irrigation to reduce dependence on rainfall, smooth production cycles, allow multiple cropping / higher yields.
- More public investment, but also more public‑private partnerships (for inputs, processing, export infrastructure).
- Emphasis on standards, certifications, regulatory compliance so that Tanzanian produce can meet stricter global markets.
Recent policy & sectoral direction (2025)
From the most recent sources:
- The government has quite ambitious targets under what they call Agenda 10/30: agriculture sector to grow 10% per year by 2030. Kilimokwanza+1
- Key goals include reducing post‑harvest losses from ~30‑40% down to ~5% by 2030. Kilimokwanza
- Increasing the export earnings of agricultural products: from USD 1.2 billion toward USD 5 billion by 2030. Kilimokwanza
- Ensuring 100% availability of raw materials for local industries; boosting horticulture, improving seeds, irrigation, mechanization. Kilimokwanza+1
- Recent performance: strong growth in food crop production (11.8% increase from 2022/23 to 2023/24), achieving about 128% food self‑sufficiency. Kilimokwanza
- Large increases in budget allocations and investment in agriculture, including mechanization, seed/seedling subsidies, improved regulatory / trade infrastructure. The BizLens+1
Projections / Scenarios (2025‑2035)
Using the recent performance as a base, plus the policy targets and constraints, here are possible projection ranges for key metrics, as well as for some major crops / product groups. These are not from a single published source for 2035, but constructed by extrapolating current growth rates and adjusting for policy impact, climate risk, infrastructure constraints, etc.
| Metric / Product | Baseline (≈ 2024/25) | Low‑Growth Scenario (business‑as‑usual) | Target / High Scenario (if policies & investments succeed) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall agricultural sector growth rate | ~4‑5% in recent years. The BizLens+1 | ~4‑6% annually through 2030, maybe slipping to 3‑4% beyond if constraints (climate, infrastructure) bite. | Up to ~10% per annum until 2030, then ~7‑8% through 2035 if strong momentum is maintained. This matches government’s goal. Kilimokwanza+1 |
| Agriculture market size (USD) | ~US$22.9 billion in 2025. Mordor Intelligence | Might grow to ~US$30‑35 billion by 2030; US$45‑55 billion by 2035 under modest improvements. | Could reach ~US$35‑40 billion by 2030; US$70‑80 billion by 2035 under more optimistic investment, value addition, export growth. |
| Cereals & grains (maize, rice, etc.) | Maize ~12.26 million tonnes; rice ~3.04 million tonnes. The BizLens+1 | Growth at 3‑5% per annum: maize might reach ~16‑18 million tonnes by 2030; rice ~4.5‑5 million tonnes. By 2035: maize ~22‑25 million; rice ~6‑7 million. | More aggressive growth (6‑8% per annum) if more irrigation, improved seeds, reduced losses: maize could reach ~20‑22 million by 2030, ~30 million+ by 2035; rice perhaps ~5.5‑6 million by 2030, ~8‑9 million by 2035. |
| Cash / traditional export crops (coffee, tea, cashew, etc.) | Cashew ~528,000 tonnes; coffee ~81,000 tonnes. Kilimokwanza+1 | Growth ~4‑6% per annum; export volumes rising; quality improvements modest. By 2030: cashew perhaps ~700‑800K tonnes; coffee ~120‑140K tonnes. By 2035: cashew ~1‑1.2 million; coffee ~180‑200K. | If aggressive investment in value chains, disease control, certification, market access: cashew may hit ~1.2‑1.5 million tonnes by 2035; coffee similarly could double or more, especially robusta + arabica with premium markets. Tea modest but improved yields could push 5‑8% growth. |
| Horticulture (fruits, vegetables, spices, etc.) | Current horticultural production ~7.5 million tonnes (all produce) in 2023/24. IPP Media | If current growth ~3‑4% p.a., this becomes ~9‑10 million tonnes by 2030; ~12‑13 million by 2035. | If stronger policies (cold chain, export infrastructure, high‑value crops, better seeds): growth 6‑8% p.a., resulting in ≈ 11‑12 million by 2030; ~18‑20 million tonnes by 2035. Also increased export share (spices, avocados, etc.) |
| Export earnings (traditional + food crops) | Traditional exports: ~$1.6 billion (recent) from traditional crops. IPP Media; Government target: agricultural export earnings from $1.2B to $5B by 2030. Kilimokwanza | Under moderate success, perhaps reach US$4‑5 billion by 2030; US$8‑10B by 2035. | Under strong success: could reach US$6‑7B+ by 2030; US$12‑15B by 2035, especially if value addition increases, exports diversify, climate resilience improves. |
| Food self‑sufficiency / surpluses | ~128% food self‑sufficiency in 2024/25. Kilimokwanza; recent maize surplus ~1 million tonnes reported. TanzaniaInvest | Tanzania likely to maintain surpluses in major staples; domestic consumption grows but production keeps ahead. | Possible that Tanzania becomes a major net exporter of some staples (maize, rice) in East Africa by 2035, supplying neighboring countries. |
| Challenges that could dampen growth | Climate change (droughts, floods); infrastructure gaps; financing; market access; regulatory/quality compliance; post‑harvest losses; land tenure issues. | These may reduce realized growth if under‑invested; in low scenario growth may slow after 2030 if climatic / resource constraints increase. | If mitigated—via improved irrigation, better seeds, digital tech, cold chains—the high scenario becomes more feasible. |
Key assumptions for projections
These projections assume:
- Continued and increased investment (public + private) in agriculture: in seeds, irrigation, mechanization, extension services, infrastructure.
- Successful reduction of post‑harvest losses as targeted (towards ~5%).
- Improved access to markets and compliance with export standards (including for horticulture, coffee, etc.).
- Reasonable stability in climate, or adaptation measures to buffer climate shocks.
- Maintenance or improvement of supportive policy environment: subsidies, financing, trade policy.
If any of these falter (e.g. climate shocks, less investment, weak policy implementation), actual growth could fall closer to the low‑scenario.