Agriculture Latest Thinking

1. Agriculture: Engine of Industrial Growth and Food Security

  • Current Status: Agriculture employs ~67% of Tanzania’s population and utilizes 44 million hectares of arable land, with 29.4 million hectares suitable for irrigation. Sugarcane and edible oils are key sub-sectors.
  • Sugarcane: Tanzania achieves high yields (120 tons/hectare), but a demand gap of ~220,000 tonnes persists, growing at 6% annually. Investments in large-scale farming and processing are critical to close this gap.
  • Edible Oils: Demand is 570,000 tonnes annually (projected to hit 700,000 by 2030), with only ~180,000 tonnes supplied domestically. Imports cost over $83 million in 2018, and a 10% tariff on crude palm oil aims to boost local processing. Opportunities lie in oilseed farming (sunflower, soybean, etc.) and modern refining facilities.
  • Latest Thinking: The focus is on scaling agro-industrial zones, leveraging high-yield crops, and reducing import dependency through mechanized farming and irrigation expansion.

2. Livestock: A Sleeping Giant

  • Current Status: Tanzania has Africa’s second-largest livestock population, with 60 million hectares of grazing land. Yet, less than 1% of meat is processed domestically, presenting a massive opportunity for import substitution.
  • Opportunities: Investments in modern slaughterhouses, cold chain logistics, dairy processing, and leather tanneries are prioritized. The sector benefits from Tanzania’s geographic position as a trade hub.
  • Latest Thinking: Public-private partnerships with entities like the National Ranching Company (NARCO) and the growing regional demand (projected 166% meat demand increase by 2030) are driving investments in commercial ranching and value-added products.

3. Fisheries & Aquaculture: Blue Economy Potential

  • Current Status: Tanzania’s 1,424 km coastline and 223,000 sq. km Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) support ~341,000 tonnes of fish production annually, contributing 1.4% to GDP. The sector supports ~4 million livelihoods.
  • Opportunities: Deep-sea fishing, cage farming (tilapia, prawns), and fish processing are key growth areas. Zanzibar’s seaweed farming and Mafia Island’s shrimp farming potential are notable.
  • Latest Thinking: The Blue Economy Policy (2024) emphasizes sustainable fisheries, marine tourism, and port modernization (Dar es Salaam, Tanga, Mtwara). Challenges like illegal fishing and environmental degradation require stronger governance.

4. Edible Oil Sector

  • Current Status: Heavy reliance on imports (60% of 570,000-tonne demand) underscores the need for domestic production. Government policies, like the 10% crude palm oil tariff, aim to stimulate local processing.
  • Latest Thinking: Investments in agro-processing clusters and supply chain development are critical to achieving self-sufficiency by 2030.

5. Cotton and Textile

  • Current Status: Over 500,000 smallholder farmers produce ~283,600 metric tons of seed cotton annually, but 80% is exported raw, missing value-addition opportunities.
  • Latest Thinking: Tanzania is capitalizing on global textile industry shifts (due to rising wages elsewhere) by promoting sustainable production and attracting foreign investment. Policy support for textile manufacturing and skills development is vital to create jobs and reduce poverty.

6. Blue Economy

  • Current Status: Zanzibar’s Blue Economy Policy (2022) and Tanzania’s National Blue Economy Policy (2024) focus on fisheries, aquaculture, marine tourism, and maritime trade. A $2.5 billion loan from South Korea supports infrastructure development.
  • Latest Thinking: Emphasis is on sustainable ocean-based growth, with investments in port expansion, renewable energy (wind, wave), and community empowerment to combat illegal fishing and environmental challenges.

7. Seed Sector

  • Current Status: Certified seed usage rose to 72,031.9 tonnes in 2023/24, but demand (~127,650 tonnes) exceeds supply. The Tanzania Official Seed Certification Institute (TOSCI) regulates quality.
  • Latest Thinking: The Seed Sector Development Strategy (SSDS) aims for self-sufficiency by 2030, with private sector involvement and digital platforms improving seed access and traceability.

8. Fertilizer Sector

  • Current Status: Domestic production grew to 158,628 metric tons in 2023/24, but 85–90% of fertilizers are imported. The ITRACOM plant (1 million tonnes/year capacity) is a game-changer.
  • Latest Thinking: Tanzania aims to become a regional fertilizer exporter by leveraging new plants and natural gas resources. Subsidies and soil-specific blends are being prioritized to boost uptake.

9. Organic Fertilizer Sector

  • Current Status: Producers like Guavay (3,500 tonnes/year) are scaling up, with seaweed-based fertilizers gaining traction. The National Ecological Organic Agriculture Strategy supports growth.
  • Latest Thinking: Demand for organic fertilizers is rising (11.35% CAGR by 2027), driven by sustainability concerns and export markets for organic produce. Challenges include high production costs and limited awareness.

10. Agricultural Machines

  • Current Status: Tractor numbers increased to 25,632 large and 15,633 small units by 2023/24, with 4.35 million hectares cultivated mechanically. Mechanization hubs rose to 85.
  • Latest Thinking: The Agenda 10/30 targets 5 tractors per 1,000 hectares by 2030. Leasing models, local assembly, and training programs are addressing affordability and skill gaps.

11. Irrigation Sector

  • Current Status: Only 4.6% of cultivated land (922,852 hectares) is irrigated, despite a 29.4 million-hectare potential. The government aims for 1.2 million hectares by 2025.
  • Latest Thinking: Investments in modern irrigation (drip, sensors) and the Irrigation Development Fund are critical to reducing rainfall dependency and boosting yields.

12. Farm Inputs

  • Current Status: Certified seed production reached 71,356 tonnes in 2023/24, and fertilizer use hit 848,884 tonnes, though application rates remain low (19–20 kg/ha).
  • Latest Thinking: Domestic production of inputs (e.g., Minjingu Mines, ITRACOM) and subsidy programs aim to reduce import reliance and improve access for smallholders.

13. Extension Services

  • Current Status: Decentralized extension services are supported by e-Kilimo and increased budgets, but coverage remains low, especially in remote areas.
  • Latest Thinking: Digital tools, pluralistic models (public-private partnerships), and farmer field schools are enhancing service delivery and accountability.

14. Agro-processing and Value Chain

  • Current Status: Agro-processing accounts for 55% of manufacturing value added. The Tanzania Agro-Industries Development Flagship (TAIDF) targets a 12% GDP contribution by 2025.
  • Latest Thinking: Investments in agro-industrial parks and smallholder integration are key to boosting employment and export earnings.

15. Food Services

  • Current Status: The food market is projected to reach $133.08 million in 2025, with online delivery growing at a 15.53% CAGR. Global chains like KFC and local eateries thrive.
  • Latest Thinking: Digital platforms, health-conscious menus, and sustainable practices are shaping the sector’s growth, though logistics challenges persist.

16. Sugar Sector

  • Current Status: Production hit 460,000 tonnes in 2023 but fell to 395,293 tonnes in 2024 due to weather. Imports meet 42% of the 807,000-tonne demand.
  • Latest Thinking: The goal is self-sufficiency by 2027 through factory upgrades, seedling initiatives, and smallholder support.

17. Wheat Sector

  • Current Status: Production is ~93,184 tonnes, with 90% of 1 million tonnes consumed imported. The government targets 1 million tonnes by 2025.
  • Latest Thinking: Investments in research, improved seeds, and modern farming aim to reduce import costs ($385.1 million in 2024).

18. Roots and Tubers

  • Current Status: Cassava (6.6 million tonnes fresh) and sweet potatoes (4.26 million tonnes) dominate, with yields improving to 9.5 tons/ha in 2022.
  • Latest Thinking: The National Cassava Development Strategy (2020–2030) focuses on pest-resistant varieties and processing to enhance food security.

19. Cereal and Grain

  • Current Status: Maize (12.26 million tonnes) and rice (3 million tonnes) production surged in 2024/25. Wheat imports remain high.
  • Latest Thinking: Sustainable practices like the System of Rice Intensification and agro-tech innovations are boosting yields and resilience.

20. Horticultural Sector

  • Current Status: Output reached 8.43 million tonnes in 2022/23, with exports at $417.7 million. Seed production covers 79% of needs.
  • Latest Thinking: The Agenda 10/30 targets $2 billion in exports by 2030, focusing on infrastructure and gender inclusion.

21. Chicken Sector

  • Current Status: The poultry population is 72 million, producing 132,442 tonnes of meat and 6.41 billion eggs. Exports of day-old chicks reached 2.7 million in 2023/24.
  • Latest Thinking: Investments in hatcheries and feed mills aim to address a projected 234,000-ton meat deficit by 2032.

22. Pesticide Sector

  • Current Status: High pesticide use in vegetable farming raises health concerns. The TPHPA banned 44 hazardous pesticides and promotes organic biocides.
  • Latest Thinking: Integrated Pest Management (IPM) and farmer training are priorities to ensure sustainable pest control.

23. Forest Sector

  • Current Status: Forests cover 48.1 million hectares, contributing 3.9% to GDP. Deforestation (469,000 ha/year) is a major challenge.
  • Latest Thinking: Community-based forest management and carbon markets are being explored to restore 5.2 million hectares by 2030.

24. Traditional Exports

  • Current Status: Cashew nuts ($626 million) and tobacco ($340 million) lead exports, but global price fluctuations pose challenges.
  • Latest Thinking: The government targets $3.5 billion in export value by 2025, emphasizing value-added processing and market access.

ConclusionTanzania’s agricultural transformation is driven by strategic sectors leveraging its natural resources, geographic position, and policy support. The latest thinking emphasizes:

  • Import Substitution: Scaling domestic production in edible oils, sugar, wheat, and poultry to reduce reliance on imports.
  • Value Addition: Investing in agro-processing, textile manufacturing, and fish processing to boost economic returns.
  • Sustainability: Promoting organic fertilizers, IPM, and forest restoration to address environmental concerns.
  • Technology and Innovation: Digital extension services (e-Kilimo), mechanization, and modern irrigation to enhance productivity.
  • Policy and Investment: The Agenda 10/30, Blue Economy Policy, and public-private partnerships are aligning to achieve a 10% annual agricultural growth rate by 2030.